Mongolia’s foreign trade turnover reached 22.7 billion USD in the first 10 months of 2024, a 12.8 percent increase compared to the same period last year, according to the General Administration of Customs. While the overall trade volume showed growth, the foreign trade balance profit declined by 26.1 percent, reaching 3.6 billion USD.

A significant portion of the country’s export growth was driven by coal, which accounted for 55.3 percent of total exports. In dollar terms, coal exports reached 7.3 billion USD, contributing to a 25.3 percent rise in total exports from the same period in 2023. Exports of other mineral products such as copper ore, iron ore, and iron ore concentrates also showed slight increases, though crude oil exports dropped by 14.2 percent year-on-year.

Despite a forecasted decrease in coal prices in 2025, largely due to China’s evolving economic model, the physical volume of coal exports is expected to remain strong, bolstered by steady demand for steel. The 2024 budget aims to increase coal exports to 78 million tons, a target that has already reached 84.4 percent by October. The forecast for 2025 expects 83.3 million tons to be delivered.

Meanwhile, copper concentrate exports are projected to reach 1.87 million tons in 2024, with a balanced price for copper expected to be 7,491.7 USD per ton in 2025.

The growth in mineral exports is expected to play a pivotal role in the country’s economic stability, with an estimated 608.9 billion MNT to be collected in the budget stabilization fund in 2025, fueled by strong mineral revenue despite the projected dip in coal prices.

While the country faces challenges in certain export sectors, the overall performance of its foreign trade in 2024 remains robust, underpinned by strong coal and mineral exports. Its strategic focus on increasing physical coal volumes, despite price fluctuations, suggests that its mineral sector will continue to be a cornerstone of economic growth in the coming years.