Dr. S.Narangerel, Head of the Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Management at the Institute of Geography and Geoecology of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences, recently earned his doctoral degree from the prestigious Graduate School of Environmental Studies at Nagoya University, Japan. His groundbreaking dissertation focused on geographical assessment and hazard mapping of flood risks in Mongolia, explores the intersection of climate change, urban vulnerability, and disaster preparedness in a country increasingly affected by extreme weather events. In this interview, he offers in-depth insights into his decade-long research journey, the growing frequency of climate-induced natural disasters, and the urgent need for data-driven risk assessment and hazard mapping in Mongolia’s urban and rural landscapes. 

In recent years, scientists have increasingly emphasized the growing frequency and intensity of natural disasters driven by climate change. Could you elaborate on the core purpose and significance of your research?

Over the past few decades, climate change and global warming have accelerated significantly across the world. In Mongolia, the average air temperature has risen by 2.4°C, and in Ulaanbaatar alone, by 3.4°C—figures that exceed the global average. This trend has turned climate change into one of the most pressing challenges facing the environmental sector today.

The intensification and increased frequency of natural disasters directly correlate with this phenomenon. In turn, such disasters pose escalating threats to a nation’s socio-economic systems. For instance, over the past 60 years, the population of Ulaanbaatar has grown nearly eightfold, now reaching 1.7 million. This surge has not only heightened the city’s vulnerability to floods but has also exacerbated exposure and sensitivity to such hazards.

Moreover, public awareness and understanding of disaster risks remain limited. Urban planning and the development of disaster prevention infrastructure are also lacking. As a result, the frequency and severity of flood-related disasters have increased in recent years.

For more than a decade, I have been actively involved in collaborative research on earthquakes and floods under the guidance of Japanese scientist Professor Yasuhiro Suzuki. Our work, often supported by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), focuses on advancing disaster science and promoting disaster preparedness education. My doctoral research was also conducted within this context, aiming to contribute to Mongolia’s disaster risk reduction strategies.

Focused on flood hazard mapping and disaster prevention recommendations in Mongolia, my research is particularly relevant to semi-arid regions like Mongolia. The study sought to analyze the impacts of climate change on major urban centers, assess flood-related risks, and ultimately support the development of prevention and mitigation strategies.

After thorough consultation with my academic advisor, we selected two contrasting regions for the fieldwork—western and central Mongolia. In particular, we focused on Khovd Province to represent the western region, an area prone to both flash floods and riverine flooding due to its mountainous terrain and limited protective infrastructure. Historical records indicate that Khovd has experienced more than 10 major flash floods over the past six decades, with the most devastating event occurring in 1994.

For central Mongolia, we chose Ulaanbaatar, where changes in precipitation patterns have become increasingly evident in recent years. The proportion of light, sustained rainfall has declined, while intense downpours have become more frequent—a pattern consistent with global climate change projections. For example, the total annual precipitation has decreased by approximately 10 percent in Ulaanbaatar and 20 percent in Khovd Province.

These two locations represent geographically and ecologically distinct zones. Consequently, the nature, frequency, and severity of flood impacts differ accordingly. This made them ideal case studies for understanding the spatial variability of climate-driven hazards in Mongolia.

Flood hazard and risk maps appear to be quite rare in Mongolia. Could you tell us more about this aspect of your work?

Indeed, one of the key objectives of my research was to develop detailed flood hazard maps. In Mongolia, there is a noticeable scarcity of hazard and risk assessment maps, especially those focused on floods. Such maps are either limited or entirely absent in many provinces.

Hazard maps play a critical role in disaster preparedness. They are created using cartographic and spatial analysis techniques to identify areas most likely to be affected by specific disasters and to assess the potential severity of impacts.

In the case of Khovd, we used modern technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to generate high-resolution topographic data. This data formed the basis for modeling flood flow directions and estimating risk zones. Using specialized geographic information system (GIS) software, we developed flood hazard maps and simulations that allowed us to identify four major flood-prone zones in Khovd. The findings were subsequently shared with local authorities to support emergency planning.

Where exactly are these four high-risk zones located?

One of the primary high-risk areas we identified is located near the Buyant River, where approximately 2,000 households traditionally spend the summer in traditional gers along the riverbank. Another significant zone is the Dan Us valley, situated south of Khovd Province. This wide dry riverbed has repeatedly channeled flash floods in recent years, particularly affecting the city’s eastern outskirts.

These locations—riverbanks and dry channels—are especially susceptible to flooding during periods of intense rainfall. Their geographic and hydrological features, coupled with the absence of flood defense structures, make them highly vulnerable.

How many locations in the capital city are at risk of flooding?
 

Using Ulaanbaatar’s 2020 cadastral data, a flood hazard map of the city was created. It identified flood-prone areas located in river valleys such as the Tuul, Uliastai, Selbe, and Tolgoit Rivers. According to this assessment, approximately 30,000 unit lands—mostly residential plots—and around 13,000 buildings and structures are situated within 200 meters of the riverbanks and fall into the flood hazard zone. Additionally, 19,000 unit land and about 6,000 buildings that lack protective infrastructure such as embankments are also at risk of flooding.

To determine these high-risk areas, a comprehensive analysis was conducted by overlaying 60 years’ worth of rainfall data, flood history, and current cadastral information with aerial and satellite imagery. This study highlighted the causes and patterns of past floods, seasonal rainfall distribution, current vulnerabilities, and the estimated number of at-risk buildings and neighborhoods. Over the past six decades, Ulaanbaatar has received about 17,000 mm of precipitation, with 80.5 percent of it falling during the summer months—primarily in early July.

During this period, the capital has experienced around 10 major flood disasters, including the significant floods of 1966, 1982, and 1994. I still vividly remember the 1994 flood when a truck was swept away by the Selbe River—a scene I’ll never forget. More recently, in 2023, two severe flooding events occurred, demonstrating that the threat remains very real.

In total, floods over the years have claimed more than 200 lives, affected approximately 50,000 households, and caused an estimated 3.3 million USD in economic damage, based on historical exchange rates. The most devastating flood to date occurred in 1966, which resulted in over 100 fatalities, damage worth around 300 million MNT, and 8,500 households affected. At that time, the city’s population was relatively sparse, which somewhat mitigated the overall impact.

Is Mongolia effectively implementing measures to reduce flood risks and mitigate damages?
 

Mongolia does have a legal and regulatory framework related to disaster risk reduction, including laws, standards, and guidelines. However, adequate financing remains a major challenge when it comes to implementing preventive measures. According to a report from 2022, Mongolia spent about 10 billion MNT on disaster prevention and risk reduction. Yet, this amount is far from sufficient.

To put it into perspective, 10 billion MNT is roughly enough to build just two kilometers of paved road. Clearly, that’s not nearly enough to support comprehensive disaster management for a country with 1.5 million square kilometers of land and 3.7 million people.

Disaster prevention and response require close collaboration among all levels of government, from national to local, and involve a wide array of coordinated efforts. It's not only about responding to floods, but also about preparing for all types of natural disasters. Japan serves as a good example—being highly disaster-prone, the country has developed a robust disaster management system, and preparedness is deeply ingrained in the mindset of its citizens.

Will the results of this flood risk study be presented to city authorities and implemented in practice?

The research findings were delivered in printed form to relevant government agencies such as the Water Department and the Deputy Governor of the capital city. However, no one has expressed interest in collaborating so far.

Has any research been conducted to estimate the probability of future floods in the coming years?
 

Flood disasters are only a matter of time. What’s important is to identify areas that are at high risk and vulnerable to flooding, and to implement preventive measures accordingly. According to international research and projections, the intensity and volume of torrential rains are expected to increase up to fourfold in the future. This means the risk of flooding is also likely to rise. Therefore, it is critical that we carefully plan and implement flood disaster prevention measures in a systematic and phased manner.

Flood disaster management plays a vital role in prevention, preparedness, and response. It is essential for protecting human lives, health, property, and for minimizing damage. As such, our country needs to invest in infrastructure, early warning systems, safe land use planning, and disaster management. These efforts will significantly help reduce the impact and severity of flood disasters and enhance our resilience in coping with them.

Do we have any studies on disaster management in Mongolia?
 

Research of this kind is rare in Mongolia. Flood-related studies are particularly scarce. Only a few international organizations have conducted flood risk assessments for Ulaanbaatar. There are also some studies by researchers from the Institute for Disaster Studies. However, it is rare to find studies that are based on solid scientific methodology and that compile comprehensive statistical data.

Were there any challenges encountered during the research process? It’s often said that the lack of centralized databases in Mongolia makes research difficult.
 

Of course, there were challenges and obstacles. Researchers pursuing academic degrees inevitably face such difficulties. For instance, Mongolia does not have a centralized information database. The available data and materials often do not meet research requirements. Additionally, many sources are unclear or unverified. In particular, long-term accumulated and recorded data is virtually nonexistent.

Researchers must be clear from the outset about the type of data their research will be based on and whether such data is accessible. At the same time, research institutions need to make efforts to share their data more openly. For example, access to climate and meteorological data was very limited. Long-term datasets were expensive, among other challenges. Therefore, government agencies must develop cooperative frameworks that allow for data sharing. At present, state institutions are still purchasing research data from each other, which shouldn’t be the case.

What are your future plans?

The goals and objectives of a researcher are based on real and practical needs. Not only myself, but all researchers at our institute aim to conduct studies that are aligned with the socio-economic needs of the country and produce tangible results. In my case, I plan to further develop and refine flood hazard and disaster mapping. As mentioned earlier, climate change has already accelerated globally, and with that, the frequency of natural disasters is increasing. Therefore, I aim to conduct research that contributes meaningfully to this pressing issue.

Specifically, I plan to carry out a study on disaster prevention recommendations for all 21 provinces of Mongolia. In addition, I aim to develop a disaster risk index assessment for major urban and settlement areas with high levels of risk.

By D.CHANTSALMAA