It has become common for citizens to migrate from the local areas and settle in the capital city. Especially, the citizens’ movement towards Ulaanbaatar City is likely to increase due to the sudden zud of last winter across the entire region. We talked to the deputy researcher at the Institute of Geography and Geoecology of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Ts.Otgonkhuu about the factors affecting the over-concentration of the population in the capital. He is a young researcher who has been active in the geographical study of the internal migration of the population of Mongolia and the pull and push factors affecting it since 2020. 

When did you start doing the geographical study of the internal migration of the population of Mongolia and the pull and push factors affecting it? What was the reason for choosing this topic?

There are priority areas of research in this field. Regarding those, a number of basic research and joint projects with foreign countries are implemented by order of the Ministry of Education and Science, and with the fund from the Mongolian Foundation for Science and Technology. One of them is the basic research project “Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of Internal Population Migration in Mongolia 2022-2024”. We are conducting research within the framework of this. This basic research project was started in 2022 and is now being intensively continued. Scholars have studied the internal migration of our country from many sides and had various points of views. For example, demographers of National University of Mongolia, geographers, and statisticians have conducted research. As for the people of our institute, the last time in 2004, scientist J.Oyungerel studied this field and obtained the doctoral degree. Since then, there have been almost no studies on population migration from a geographical perspective. So for me, I wanted to fill that void.

How do you determine the main purpose and importance of your research work?

Since 1990, internal migration between local areas and the capital city have been open in Mongolia. As a result, the flow of people coming to the capital was intensified. Therefore, based on the main indicators of the internal migration of the population of Mongolia, a spatial analysis was carried out in provinces and soums, and it was aimed to determine the changes in the population settlement system because of its influence. Furthermore, it will be an important research work to determine and analyze the pull and push factors of population migration by settlement types, or in other words Ulaanbaatar City, province and soums.

Studying and defining migration has a crucial effect on the development of policy. Also, it will make an estimate of how the settlement of the capital city is likely to change in the future, right?

Of course, there are many advantages. Everyone knows the current level of settlement in Mongolia. 48 percent of its population resides in the capital city or in the 0.3 percent of its territory. If we continue in this way, 58 percent of the total population will be concentrated and be living in Ulaanbaatar by 2045. That is why, it is necessary to scientifically study population migration and formulate policies.

What are the positive and negative effects of population growth?

Like anything, there are both positive and negative effects about population growth. Our country has a vast territory, a small population, and a sparse settlement. That is why the population growth policy is major. This has many implications. However, over-concentration in Ulaanbaatar, which occupies only 0.3 percent of its total area, has negative effects in many ways. We are constantly experiencing the negative consequences of environmental pollution, traffic jams, lack of access to social services, and so on. 

What are the social, economic, and geographical factors that affect the migration of people?

I have mentioned that there has been analysis about the migration of the last 30 years. As a result, it is intended to clarify what further measures should be taken and what needs to be paid more attention to. It is necessary to study depending on which factors people are deciding to migrate or leave the rural areas and go to urban areas. This is the next goal of my research. The results of many previous studies related to migration are summarized and the reasons are explored. 

What was the major factor influencing the movement from rural areas to UB?

Usually natural factors push people out of the locality. For example, due to drought, zud, desertification, and soil degradation, people are moving from local areas to settlement areas. On the other hand, social and economic factors attract people especially to Ulaanbaatar. In particular, it is common for local people to come to the capital seeking higher education, specialized health care services, employment, and overall good quality of life.

How many people migrate a year? When was the time when the most people moved?

Looking at the average of the last 30 years, about 95,000 people migrate annually. According to my research, the most active period was during 2000 to 2010. If we have a look at the pattern of migration in Mongolia, population migration increased during and after natural disasters. In particular, there are three peaks in the dynamics of the population that migrated to Ulaanbaatar City. It includes, during the time period of 2000 and 2002, when zud occurred, and the one to two years after that, many people from the local area came to the capital. Following that, 39,000 people moved to the capital city after the 2009’s zud. The third peak was in 2020. Furthermore, in 2017, the Governor of the Capital City and Mayor of Ulaanbaatar decided not to register migration. However, the decision was canceled in 2020. Thus, it seems that the migration of citizens who have already settled in the capital has suddenly increased after confirming their registration in 2020. Also, the fact that there was a zud or a natural disaster that year also had an impact to some extent. For that reason, due to last winter, migration will increase this year as well, and the number of settlers in the capital will likely increase.

Your study mentions the fact that the number of residents increased after the construction of paved roads in provinces and soums in which the population was declining in the 10 years before the construction of the paths. So, I thought that improving the infrastructure is the main way to keep the local migration at a reasonable level.

Paved roads are definitely one of the main pulling factors affecting migration. In soums along economic corridors and axes or the main roads, there is a pattern of increased population movement. For example, almost 70 percent of Mongolia’s population lives along the central road from Altanbulag to Zamiin-Uud. Seven in 10 people live in that region. In this sense, the economic axis is the main factor that attracts the population. Also, depending on the number of years the road was put into use in the area, the population steadily increases or decreases. Since 2010, construction has been intensively carried out to connect provincial centers with Ulaanbaatar by road. Since then, the local population has been steadily growing.

In the last 30 years, there has been population increase in only two of the 21 provinces, Orkhon and Umnugovi. On the other hand, the migration to the capital is dominated by other provinces in terms of citizens’ movement. At the soums level, only 21 out of 330 were dominated by migration coming in. Some of them are the center of the provinces, or some of them are experiencing development of mining and are close to the border port.

Based on what methodology are you conducting your research?

Migration is an interdisciplinary study that is influenced by many natural, social, and economic factors. Therefore, there are many different theories, models, and approaches. In my case, I am working based on Everett Lee’s theory of pull and push factors and Russian economic geographer E.B.Alaev’s model of studying migration in a systematic way. In our country, it is very difficult to find information, so it is arduous to determine migration at the soum level. Therefore, both direct and indirect methods are used. In my case, using an indirect method used when data is scarce, I determined the movement of the 330 soums over the 30 years since 1990. In addition, the migration of the area and locality was determined by the average annual growth rate of the population. It is a method of determining whether migration or departure predominates by comparing local population growth to the national average.

When will the final results of the study be released?

Currently, the research is ongoing. Analysis of each of the 15 sets of factors that have been released in the first place will be continued at the spatial level or at the level of 330 soums. In this way, it will be determined which area is dominated by the migration of people due to natural factors. It also aims to provide detailed results, such as determining which soums have the most migration due to social and economic factors. Based on this, it will be possible to reduce the impact of the factors pushing the citizens away from rural areas, with the help of the research in the future. On the other hand, the social and economic factors that are the pulling factor of the city will be spatially organized properly and will help to reduce the intensity of movement towards Ulaanbaatar City. In this way, it is seen that it is possible to support the movement back to the local areas.